2026 Q2 Hilltop
market report.

The Q2 numbers are in, and they mostly confirm what the spring update predicted rather than surprising us with anything new: prices kept grinding higher, inventory tightened further as the spring surge worked its way through the market, and the moderation we flagged for early summer arrived close to on schedule. Here is the complete April-through-June picture, and what it signals heading into the back half of 2026.

We closed the spring update in early June with a promise: the full Q2 report, covering the complete second quarter rather than the partial April-through-early-June window, would publish in early August. This is that report. It builds on the Q1 report published in May and closes out the first half of 2026 with a complete quarterly picture — the final three weeks of June included, which is where some of the more interesting movement in this cycle actually happened.

Q2 2026 at a glance

Here is the complete second quarter, measured against Q1 2026 and the same quarter a year ago.

Year-over-year, the median is up 14.7% — a meaningful deceleration from Q1's 15.6% but still double-digit growth, which is a stronger back half of a growth cycle than most Denver-area neighborhoods are producing right now. The number that stands out most, though, is inventory: 51 active listings at the end of June is down 25% from the same point last year, and down from the 58 sitting on the market in early June per the spring update. That's the spring cohort finishing its work — the well-priced homes that came to market in April and May closed out through June, and June's new listings weren't enough to fully replace them.

Where the activity actually was

Pulling the full quarter's closed sales by price band gives a clearer picture than the headline median, which is doing the same job it's done in every report so far — averaging a handful of very different markets into one number.

Below $1.5M. Still the fastest-moving band, and it stayed that way through June. Median days on market for this tier came in under 20 for the quarter, with several original 1940s and 1950s ranches on the eastern blocks drawing four or more offers in their first weekend. The buyer pool here — scrape-and-rebuild investors and young families willing to renovate — showed no signs of slowing through the quarter.

$1.5M to $3M. The thickest band, and the one that did the most to shape the quarter's above-asking rate. April and May carried the competitive intensity the spring update described; June cooled somewhat, with days on market for correctly priced listings stretching from the high teens back toward the high 20s. This is the moderation we flagged as likely back in June, arriving close to on schedule.

$3M to $6M. The estate tier kept its deliberate, patient pace — 65 to 85 days for correctly priced homes, a small buyer pool that doesn't move faster just because spring is in the air. Two notable closings in this band happened on blocks we've profiled before: one on the 6th Avenue Parkway corridor, one near Cranmer Park.

Above $6M. Thin, as always, and the quarter's single largest closing in this tier never touched the public MLS. We continue to see this pattern concentrate at the top of the market more than anywhere else in Denver.

The moderation, on schedule

The spring update flagged a specific pattern in late May: the competitive intensity of April was moderating, some of the most motivated buyers had already closed their searches, and the above-asking rate might soften from its 26% spring peak. June bore that out. Above-asking sales for the full quarter landed at 24% — down two points from the spring window's 26%, but still well ahead of Q1's 20% and Q2 2025's 18%.

Price reductions followed a similar arc. The pattern the spring update identified — listings priced more than 6% above the most recent comparable sale generating tours but not offers — held through June, and if anything sharpened. By late June, several listings in the $1.8M to $2.8M band that had sat past 45 days took reductions in the 4% to 7% range, a slightly larger cut than the 3% to 5% seen in April and May. Buyers in this range are patient enough now to wait out an overpriced listing rather than negotiate against it, a meaningfully different posture than the market showed a year ago.

Rates, cash, and the off-market share

Jumbo mortgage rates spent most of the quarter in the 5.6% to 5.9% range, easing modestly from the 5.7%-to-6.0% band cited in the spring update. That's a small move, but it's been enough to keep some financed buyers in play at Hilltop price points who might otherwise have been priced to the sidelines. Several market-watchers we track are still calling for a Fed cut in September or October; if that happens on schedule, jumbo pricing could move meaningfully lower heading into Q4.

Cash share held at 34% to 38% of closings at or above $2M — consistent with both the Q1 and spring figures, and a reminder that Hilltop's upper bands are structurally cash-weighted in a way most Denver neighborhoods aren't. Off-market activity above $3M continued at roughly the same 15% to 25% share we've cited since the Q1 report; our own count for the quarter puts it closer to the higher end of that range, driven mostly by the estate-tier closings mentioned above.

What this means if you're buying

Summer, per the spring update's own forecast, is genuinely the quieter of Hilltop's two annual buying windows — and July bore that out, with showing volume down noticeably from the April-May peak. That's not a signal to wait until fall out of caution; it's closer to the opposite. Fewer competing buyers touring the same handful of listings is exactly the environment where a patient, well-prepared buyer has room to negotiate, especially in the $1.5M-to-$3M band where spring's intensity has cooled the most.

Two things worth doing now rather than waiting for fall. First, get ahead of financing: rates easing into the high-5% range widens what's affordable at the margin, and a buyer who's pre-approved for the current environment can move the moment the right home surfaces. Our financing guide covers the jumbo and appraisal-gap mechanics specific to Hilltop. Second, if you're weighing how aggressively to compete when a good listing does appear, our offer strategy guide walks through how to structure a competitive bid without over-waiving the protections that matter.

What this means if you're selling

The fall window is next, and based on the conversations the team is having right now, it's shaping up to bring a moderate inventory increase — not a flood, but more competition for buyer attention than the thinner summer months offered. Sellers who list in the four-to-six-week window before the fall wave typically catch buyers who've been patiently waiting through summer, without the full weight of September's new listings to compete against.

Timing is only half the decision. Our piece on when to list a Hilltop home covers the seasonal mechanics in more depth, and it's worth reading before settling on a launch date rather than defaulting to "as soon as it's ready." The preparation work still needs the same lead time it always has — rushing it to catch a specific week rarely produces a better outcome than waiting three or four weeks and doing it right.

Looking ahead to Q3 and the fall market

Three things we're watching through the rest of the year.

The rate decision. A September or October Fed cut remains the consensus expectation among the market-watchers we follow. If it materializes, expect a more competitive fall than the historical seasonal pattern would otherwise predict — lower jumbo rates would pull some sidelined financed buyers back into the market right as fall inventory arrives.

Fall inventory. Based on current listing conversations, we expect a moderate increase in new listings through September and October, consistent with the typical Hilltop pattern of a second, smaller seasonal wave after the spring surge. It's unlikely to fully replace what the spring cohort absorbed, which should keep the market tight relative to historical fall norms.

The price ceiling. Three straight quarters of double-digit year-over-year price growth is a real trend, not noise, but the deceleration from 15.6% in Q1 to 14.7% in Q2 is worth watching. Our working view is unchanged from the spring update: prices are more likely to hold and grow modestly through the rest of 2026 than to either surge further or retreat.

The Q3 report will publish in early November. If you want it in your inbox the day it's live, subscribe to the Brief.